quasi in rem

Tuesday, February 24, 2004

So how many votes did Bush lose or gain?

If this was a political decision, as accused by many, then exactly how many votes will it cost Republicans this fall?

First let's assume that this will cost Bush the entire gay vote. "Exit polls show Bush took 25 percent of the gay vote, a statistically insignificant increase from Robert J. Dole's 23 percent in 1996. "

First I have no idea how they tabulated that data, if I was asked at an exit poll my sexual orientation I would have said "no thank you."

Next exactly how many votes is that assming around 105 million people vote this fall. Is it 25% of the widely bandied about 10% of the population figure? Or is it 24% of the some what more accepted 3% male, 1.4 % female figure. Let's just say that 5% of the voting population was homosexual and 25 % of those voted for Bush. That means that Bush got approximately 1.3 million votes from homosexuals in 2000.

Let's say those are gone. If any of those votes were in Florida, that hurts him. Let's also assume that this might invigorate the gay community to vote against Bush. Based on high concentration of homsexual communities this will especially hurt in states with lerger urban areas like New York, California, Illinois and Florida.

Next there are those voters who might be concerned with other aspects of Bush's policies and this put them over the edge. I have no idea who that might be, or how many votes that would be but let's throw out a number of about a million.

So, on the high end this could cost Bush approximately 3 million votes.

Will it net him that many?

i doubt it. First this decision is unlikely to motivate a large number of people who voted against Bush in 200 to vote for him now. Maybe some.

Now it might serve to energize his evangelical base to work harder than they would have in 2000. But enough to overcome the 3 million vote deficit?

Tough to say. they obviously know more about this in the White House than I do. But what it does indicate is that this might not not necessarily be a political decision.

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