quasi in rem

Friday, May 14, 2004

How Kerry lost the Presidency....Excellent news for Kerry in Ohio.

These polls sometimes tend to become less significant in their numerosity, but the Kerry campaign has to be happy with this result. A seven point lead, with Nader in the poll, in a state where nader may not even get on the ballot, is very significant. Especially considering that Ohio is one of the states that Bush has targetted with his ad buys.

A more important note I think is the collective psyche of the nation preparing themselves for a new President. For exampel, a recent poll on ESPN.com asked who was more likely to be in the white house next year: the New England Patriots (as return superbowl winners) or George W. Bush. (it was a tie). Leno has included more and more "Bush is going to lose" jokes in his monologues, as is Letterman.

Once the probability that there will be a new administration becomes a collective perception, the undecideds typically fall into line for the new guy. Everyone likes to vote for the winner.

The Bushies are vehemently trying to stop this trend, exclaming the new mantra of a Vote for Kerry sends the wrong message, and this is not the time to change.

Things are beginning to look better for Kerry, who has been waiting for recent event to show up in the polls. How could he possibly screw this up.


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