quasi in rem

Monday, May 10, 2004

In an article entitled: "The New Battleground" by Mark Gersh, the author illustrates several memes that will emrge as the election season gets rolling: "The 2000 presidential election produced two enduring stereotypes, one accurate, one misleading. The first is that the two major political parties are at absolute parity in the electorate as a whole. That remains accurate today. The second is that America can be neatly divided into 'red states' (Republican) and 'blue states' (Democratic), with few opportunities for change. That's very misleading. In fact, between 13 and 20 states are likely to be in play in 2004, with a significant majority of those states being genuine toss-ups. "

It is an excellent article and I suggest reading the whole thing. However I would not that highly doubt that this election will be a replay of 2000. As it stands now, I think that the electionwill either resemble 1996, where Clinton won all of 2000 states and several "red states" or 1980, where Reagan won many so called red states and several blue.

Right now, scenario 1996 looks much more likely. The numbers in Pennsylvania, Oregon, New Jersey and California do not look good for Kerry.


Post a Comment

<< Home