quasi in rem

Thursday, May 27, 2004

Is it just me, or do you think the Rasmussen Poll people are just calling the same 20 people every day?

Rasmussen Reports is releasing a daily poll result which covers three days of polling. But including the error rate, both candidates have stayed solid at 45% for a couple of months now.

They claim that the the national telephone survey of 1,500 Likely voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports over the past three nights. Margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Methodology.

Well considering that they have been producing the poll daily for the past 100 days or so that means that if they have never called the same person twice, they have contacted at least 150000 different likely voters. Or if they only contact 500 people each day and the poll is a rolling result, they have contact 50,000 different people.

Are there that many people in this country who will answer the phone and conduct a poll? I have never met anyone who participated in a Rasmussen poll.

More likely they are just calling the same 20 people something like this:

"Hey Jim, it me at Rasmussen again, changed your mind about the election?

No.

Ok, talk to you tomorrow."

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