quasi in rem

Wednesday, June 02, 2004

WSJ's Electoral College Calculator

As linked to bySouthern Appeal, the WSJ has a really cool Electoral College generator that totals votes.

The problem is that I keep coming up with 269-269. So what happens next? Thankfully there is the 12th Amendmendment. The House meets in a 1 state one vote system and whoever gets 26 states wins. I am not sure whether or no this takes place during the lame duck or new session of Congress.

This will make a difference. Texas for example currently has an evenly split Congressional delegation, despite the fact that every single statewide elected official is a Republican. But after the next election, they should have 8 more seats. Illinois currently has more Republican seats than Democratic, but if Kerry and Obama swing through the state, then that could change.

However, as it stands now, at least 28 states have republican majorities, 4 are tied, and 18 have democratic majorities. That should not change that significantly this election. Two of the tied states, Alabama and Texas may swing republican, the other two Minnesota and Wisconsin may swing Democrat. South Dakota, which became Democrat by 1% last night, may swing back Republican. And Illinois or Pennsylvania may swing Democrat.

But still in the event of a tie, the likely President will be Republican.

More interesting, the Senate gets to pick the Vice President, by a simple majority vote. This could be interesting if the Senate changes hands. Would they pick a Vp from a different Party? Probably not, but it would be interesting. Would John Kerry get to vote?


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