quasi in rem

Tuesday, October 19, 2004

The final sprint...

There are 2 silly seasons in American politics. The first begins with the final primary in the election season that determines the candidates and ends at the end of the conventions. The second begins at the end of the debates and extends to the elections.

Nothing worthwhile ever happens during these seasons. Nobody changes their minds. Nobody says anything that has any political import.

It just gets really really ugly.

Here is the preview:

[b]1. The Polls.[/b] Screw em'. Forget about them. There will be only one poll left that makes any difference whatsoever. On the Friday October 29, Zogby will release a poll showin Kerry with a significant lead and polling above 50% (52-47 maybe). TIPP and Time will follow with simialr polls. This will dominate the news cycle for the weekend. These polls will be exactly as meaningful as the polls last year showing Bush with a 4 point lead going into election Teusday. But they will be all that is talked about.

The truth is that this election will be 50-49-1 in one direction or the other. Everyone knew this in January. Everyone knew this in August. Everyone knows this know. And by the way, none of that matters one bit. The only thing that matters is how many people show up to vote in Ohio. Vote early, vote once.

[b]2. The insults.[/b] They will fly and they will be ugly. Edwards has already called Bush a con man. He will start calling him a liar at every appearance. Kerry and Edwards, or a Senator designate, will float the idea that Bush should be impeached. Bush and Cheney, or a major Republican, will say that Kerry is a traitor. An ad will come out from Move-On showing Bush doing cocaine. An ad will come out from Swift Vets showing Kerry selling guns to the Viet-Cong.

3. The past crime. A thirty year old charge will come out that will have no new information on a candidate and be played in the press. Kerry will accused of being constitutionally unfit to hold office due to his meeting with the Vietcong whil still in the Navy. A story will float that Cheney is a subject in the Oil-for-Food scandal/investigation. Yet another old Bush conviction, or drug charge, will be floated on Thursday night before the election.

4. Scaring old people. I am little behind the times here. Usually they wait until the last week to start throwing around threats that candidate x will take away Social Security from old people. Well Kerry said so yesterday. Bush will tell old people that Kerry will take away their useless prescription drug card.

By the way, I predict the first law suit filed by a party concerning the legality of the actual vote will be filed at least 3 days before November 2nd and continue all the way through Christmas.


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